Image is of military and civilian sites across Caracas which were bombed by the United States as of last weekend.
As everybody has already known for a couple days, the US has abducted Maduro and his wife in a massive operation (of which the exact details are not currently known, but involved hundreds of aircraft and at least some bombing of military and civilian targets), and has threatened Venezuela and the socialist party with further abductions and widespread murder if they do not hand over control of the country directly to the United States. In a statement that really says it all, Trump said that Machado is not being considered for the colonial viceroy position due to her sheer unpopularity. Various parties and countries around the world - and inside the US - have expressed their disapproval, which, as we all know, will not shift US foreign policy a single iota.
A few months ago, when the pressure campaign on Venezuela began, I speculated that Maduro was going to be killed or captured eventually. Flagrantly illegal and violent American military campaigns in Latin America are not new. The US has been invading land, looting banks, assassinating democratically elected leaders, and otherwise overthrowing countries in the region for their own economic benefit for the better part of two centuries, under both Democratic and Republican parties. Unfortunately, we all know that Russia and China are unlikely to do anything meaningful to contest the US in their attempt to more violently assert hegemony in Latin America. I doubt very much that the China of today will come out to bat for Venezuela and start meaningfully pressuring the US economically. For better and worse, we are far from the days of the USSR.
However, Latin America has, historically, met the US in its radicalism, committed to wars of anti-colonial nationalism, and carried out successful revolutions against the dictators placed in control from the US. As history continues ever onwards and conditions develop, I can only assume that we shall once again enter that radicalizing cycle. In that vein, the big question on my mind, and everybody else’s, is: what comes next? Does the Venezuelan socialist party have the social and military cohesion to wage a years-long guerilla war against occupying troops? Can they quickly transition from a conventional to guerilla force as their military facilities are bombed, or will it take several years? Can they prevent the theft of their oil resources and make the attempt at foreign occupation more costly in both the manpower and economic costs than what that war will generate? Can Venezuela manufacture weapons for this guerilla war in a state of blockade? Will this military campaign begin immediately upon soldiers landing, or will it take a period of relatively unopposed occupation of months or even years? Will Cuba, Colombia, and even Mexico be in the same situation by the end of the year, with abducted leaders?
Yemen is the very recent proof that seemingly weak countries can force the American military to retreat in defeat. Can Venezuela follow? We shall see what Maduro has done to prepare the country for this war very soon. The only certain thing is that the murderous violence propagated by a trembling and dying empire shall be defeated eventually, whether it takes months, years, or decades, and the end result will be a socialist victory.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Per https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-venezuela-does-not-give-china-taiwan-precedent-its-up-to-xi-2026-01-08/
Certainly sounds like Trump is sphere of influence-brained.
This sounds a lot like the US’s vague statements they gave to Iraq before the Iran/Iraq war. The US always says shit like this when they want to push other countries into letting them manufacture consent for a war against them.
Comparing China with Iraq is like a mountain to a molehill. In the case of Iraq the US just needed an excuse to go after a much weaker opponent. In China’s case they can have all the excuses they want but China is still the stronger military power in the immediate vicinity of Taiwan.
I maintain my theory that US Taiwan policy has shifted from deterrence to deliberate provocation of a proxy war in order to inflict some blows on China in the hope of setting back their military and economic development a few years to buy time for US hegemony.
I’m just not sure how this works in practice. Japan is the only proxy that could reasonably fight China, and it’s already militarily occupied by the United States. I just don’t see a way the US avoids getting directly involved.
It could be as simple as “Taiwan” (read: US officers) launching a massive volley of missiles at preselected targets and then instantly capitulating. Honestly I don’t know.
All I know is that the US will never quietly give up its hegemony and shrink into a contained sphere of influence.
So the US plan is China’s dream scenario ?Taiwan unilaterally initiating kinetic violence which does minimum to moderate damage , justifying an overwhelming Chinese response and annexation with way way less room for western allies or even the us to possibly assist Taiwan. Why would the US want to create a situation where if they dont act they lose Taiwan and as such begin the end of US power in east asia or if they do act they also probably still lose taiwan while losing a military conflict in Chinas backyard and accelerating their retreat from asia 100 fold. One has to believe either “chinas stuff dont work , us has special secret alien tech weapons” or “uhh Malacca Straight blockade checkmate” redditor analysis to make this be a gambit that makes sense. And every year that passes it becomes a worse gambit.
Sure you can say “US is an unhinged empire it will initiate into a suicidal conflict it will likely lose and destroy the world if its going bad to stop China from rising”. But if thats true and the US is dead set at that there is nothing anyone, including China can do about it other than maximizing its military power in the context of a conflict with the US and allies (at best japan and phillipines, so just Japan) at its backyard. So that they take over taiwan quickly enough that thing is over before the US can do much and then dont have anything to fight china for or be dominant enough that a non completely insane administration just doesnt enter because it would mean humiliation.
Either way that entire scenario is ignoring the fact that China would learn about any of this the moment Taiwan does as well. The ROC military, intelligence service and politics are infiltrated by spies and sympathisers to a hillarious degree
Sounds good, doesn’t work. Russia hasn’t been militarily weakened by the Ukraine war, it is now an order of magnitude stronger. All provoking a proxy war with China would do is give China’s military much needed combat experience and their industrial base an excuse to go into overdrive shifting a portion of their colossal civilian production to military.
Maybe the US understands this, maybe they don’t. Maybe they are too desperate and can’t afford not simply to roll the dice and hope for the best. Time will tell.
This is where imperial strategy is at for the most part right now, all smashed up with Trump’s capricious volatility
Honestly, seems like it would be a golden opportunity for China to finish reunification, and immediately after continue with business as usual against the US.
I mean there’s a non-zero chance that China can take over Taipei before any US aid can arrive, and everybody in Taiwan surrenders, and Trump goes “ok” and then the next day everything is normal. Would be the best outcome, though still unlikely.
And all of that predicated on whether the US Treasury and Federal Reserve don’t flex the Petrodollar to cripple Chinese local govt., even if the short term would mean fucking themselves over too.
xhs posting is getting a bit out of hand when you try to apply it in stuff like this. This is an open kinetic invasion or siege of Taiwan we are talking about. It will take 1-2 months at the absolute longest or it is already lost and if the Chinese begin it they wont stop midway and give up because “uhhh Local finance vehicles liquidity and dept issues 3 months from now or marginal oil shortages in trucking in like 6 months”.
I just don’t see China attacking Taiwan at all. Taiwanese companies play a large role in China’s economy. Has there actually ever been a war started because of face/honor?
China will not make a move on its own and that is their consistent position. They will attack if Taiwan makes a move unilaterally breaking the status quo. Not Pelosi visiting or some arm sale that will be delivered in 8 years and is half useless for Taiwans situation. But something like a constitution change,an independence announcement, a referendum announcement, or a move from taiwan to actualy form some military pact with someone or host us or other forces at significant scale.
Tracks with what I have been saying for almost a year now that a renewed status quo between US and China is going to be the most likely outcome:
Both countries need each other more than they thought. The US might want to decouple, but China has adeptly showed Trump how decoupling will be painful, very painful. After all, all the best cards (especially rare earth restrictions) are being used to keep the US from going through the divorce.
Also this FT article from last week - Why China is doubling down on its export-led growth model has some very interesting paragraphs that give us insight into how Chinese officials think about the US:
This tracks with what I understand about the basis behind China’s win-win cooperation, which is built upon a transactional relationship where mutual benefits are maximized.