xhs posting is getting a bit out of hand when you try to apply it in stuff like this. This is an open kinetic invasion or siege of Taiwan we are talking about. It will take 1-2 months at the absolute longest or it is already lost and if the Chinese begin it they wont stop midway and give up because “uhhh Local finance vehicles liquidity and dept issues 3 months from now or marginal oil shortages in trucking in like 6 months”.
So the US plan is China’s dream scenario ?Taiwan unilaterally initiating kinetic violence which does minimum to moderate damage , justifying an overwhelming Chinese response and annexation with way way less room for western allies or even the us to possibly assist Taiwan. Why would the US want to create a situation where if they dont act they lose Taiwan and as such begin the end of US power in east asia or if they do act they also probably still lose taiwan while losing a military conflict in Chinas backyard and accelerating their retreat from asia 100 fold. One has to believe either “chinas stuff dont work , us has special secret alien tech weapons” or “uhh Malacca Straight blockade checkmate” redditor analysis to make this be a gambit that makes sense. And every year that passes it becomes a worse gambit.
Sure you can say “US is an unhinged empire it will initiate into a suicidal conflict it will likely lose and destroy the world if its going bad to stop China from rising”. But if thats true and the US is dead set at that there is nothing anyone, including China can do about it other than maximizing its military power in the context of a conflict with the US and allies (at best japan and phillipines, so just Japan) at its backyard. So that they take over taiwan quickly enough that thing is over before the US can do much and then dont have anything to fight china for or be dominant enough that a non completely insane administration just doesnt enter because it would mean humiliation.
Either way that entire scenario is ignoring the fact that China would learn about any of this the moment Taiwan does as well. The ROC military, intelligence service and politics are infiltrated by spies and sympathisers to a hillarious degree
China will not make a move on its own and that is their consistent position. They will attack if Taiwan makes a move unilaterally breaking the status quo. Not Pelosi visiting or some arm sale that will be delivered in 8 years and is half useless for Taiwans situation. But something like a constitution change,an independence announcement, a referendum announcement, or a move from taiwan to actualy form some military pact with someone or host us or other forces at significant scale.