Trump talks shit a lot of the time but it would be an immense public embarrassment for his administration if he falsely claimed that he had kidnapped Maduro so I’m very much inclined to believe this on the face of it, without any evidence to support or dispute the claim.
I thought of that after I posted this comment, and yea, that would be a big lie to tell even for him.
The question, though, is how badly will this affect Venezuelan resistance? Hopefully that doesn’t cripples the socialists for one, I’m concerned about how this might help comprador reactionary and traitor forces. Also, how well can they defend themselves, on one hand having aircrafts over the capital isn’t a supremely good look for the country’s air defense capability, on the other hand Caracas is basically right on the coast so aircrafts coming from the sea would probably (I assume) reach it very shortly after detection making it easier to get shots in before a response can be scrambled. How far in the territory can American aircrafts go before they’re in serious trouble?
The question, though, is how badly will this affect Venezuelan resistance?
Very hard to tell and I think it’s going to be largely contingent on the Venezuelan military response. The colectivos are armed and trained but they are militias and they aren’t likely to be able to resist in a significant way without Venezuelan military support, especially if the military turns on them.
If it was a full-blown Afghanistan style occupation then the colectivos could be expected to be very useful as an insurgent force but I don’t think this one is a fight they are big enough to take on so as it stands currently, I think the vast majority of the resistance would come from the Venezuelan military, which appears not to have fired a single shot.
How far in the territory can American aircrafts go before they’re in serious trouble?
Honestly, I’m not a military guy I’m a geopolitics girlie so I can’t say anything authoritatively in this respect but it’s hard to imagine a Venezuelan military with air defence capabilities enough to resist the US. If they went all-in on drones and prepared for a pitched battle then it’s possible that there would be strong resistance but I don’t know how realistic that would have been.
Venezuela isn’t renowned for its military capacity and their military, at least historically, has a tendency towards disloyalty so I’m not that hopeful about their capacity to pose much resistance at this stage.
The question, though, is how badly will this affect Venezuelan resistance? Hopefully that doesn’t cripples the socialists for one, I’m concerned about how this might help comprador reactionary and traitor forces. Also, how well can they defend themselves, on one hand having aircrafts over the capital isn’t a supremely good look for the country’s air defense capability, on the other hand Caracas is basically right on the coast so aircrafts coming from the sea would probably (I assume) reach it very shortly after detection making it easier to get shots in before a response can be scrambled. How far in the territory can American aircrafts go before they’re in serious trouble?
Very hard to tell and I think it’s going to be largely contingent on the Venezuelan military response. The colectivos are armed and trained but they are militias and they aren’t likely to be able to resist in a significant way without Venezuelan military support, especially if the military turns on them.
If it was a full-blown Afghanistan style occupation then the colectivos could be expected to be very useful as an insurgent force but I don’t think this one is a fight they are big enough to take on so as it stands currently, I think the vast majority of the resistance would come from the Venezuelan military, which appears not to have fired a single shot.
Honestly, I’m not a military guy I’m a geopolitics girlie so I can’t say anything authoritatively in this respect but it’s hard to imagine a Venezuelan military with air defence capabilities enough to resist the US. If they went all-in on drones and prepared for a pitched battle then it’s possible that there would be strong resistance but I don’t know how realistic that would have been.
Venezuela isn’t renowned for its military capacity and their military, at least historically, has a tendency towards disloyalty so I’m not that hopeful about their capacity to pose much resistance at this stage.