https://xcancel.com/Defence_Index/status/2011280167608701398
Signs of possible U.S. B-2 activity emerging. Eyes on Iran, the next 24 hours may matter. 👀
🚨🇺🇸 UNUSUAL U.S. AIR FORCE ACTIVITY RAISES QUESTIONS
Eight KC-135 Stratotankers have landed in Hawaii, a transit hub previously used ahead of June’s Middle East operations involving Iranian nuclear sites.
Now, two KC-135Rs have departed Hawaii and are heading west, drawing fresh attention to U.S. military movements.
The slight silver lining is that if the US goes to all out, boot on the ground war against Iran, they’ll lose, quite badly too, and it’ll probably be the end for Israel.
The goal isnt to rule Iran, it’s to kneecap it before it becomes a danger. Just like Libya and Syria, if they can start a civil war or just royally fuck the economy until its irrelevant to geopolitical events (eg. blocking Hormuz).
Maybe there’s some stretch goals for controlling the oil, but even denying the oil to someone else is a good start. Most importantly, none of this necessitiates a ground invasion.
Good point. However, given the outcome of the last few American military operations in the region, I’m frankly very skeptical of their chances of even achieving that.
If I remember the articles I’ve read about the US war games simulating a war against Iran correctly, the American fleet got wiped out in short order and with minimal damage dealt to Iran. And that was years ago, Iran has gotten stronger since, while the US has stagnated if not weakened.
As for causing a civil war, the current attempt at a color revolution has already failed, adding an other failure to the CIA’s recent streak of failed covert operations. So I wouldn’t bet on any successes on that front either.
I think what we’ve seen since the Iraq and Afghanistan debacles is a pivot towards a “de-development” strategy. The goal is simply to just collapse, sew chaos, and generally destroy the state capacity of enemy nation states as much as possible, with no pretense of trying to transition the government to a friendly regime. One reason to do that is that you don’t need an occupation, with the corresponding risk of high casualties and the risk that the whole endeavor be perceived as a failure.
We see a complete version of this strategy being employed against Iran: air strikes, special forces operations, clandestine operations, cyber warfare, and economic warfare. It’s incredibly devastating to the whole society, there’s very little risk of casualties, and there’s very little risk of it being perceived as a “failure” on the political stage (even when the regime doesn’t collapse).
More limited versions of this are applied to other countries, notably Cuba, North Korea and Venezuela. We see the results of it completely collapsing a state in Libya. We see examples of other countries doing it; I think the best example being Israel and Lebanon.
Nah, if US and Iran bludgeon each other, there’s a chance Israel is left free to do what it wants with the rest of the region.
The saving grace is that Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan have a defense treaty - so maybe even with Iran out of the picture - these guys can mount a good fight against Israel.
And without US patronage, Egypt could possibly flip.
I disagree. Israel is infinitely more dependent on the US than any of the nations and groups fighting Israel have ever been dependent on Iran.
While, sure, Ansar Allah, Hezbollah and Hamas probably do get some gears from Iran, they also make their own themselves, and have in fact mastered the art of making weapons out of anything they can get, a capability that Israel is simply incapable of matching as without US deliveries they simply don’t get weapons at all.
Not to mention all the other aspects of Israel are fully or almost fully dependent on US support. Not least of which is their entire economy.
Even if the US and Iran wipes each other’s army, it’s Israel who’ll lose in the long run. Because Iran or not, without the American lifeline, Israel collapses, it’s that simple.
Iran has made it clear that it would destroy Israel if the US attacks
Turkey is in NATO, and was quite happy to advance NATO’s agenda in Syria whilst barking like a dog at “Israel” despite trading with them via Egypt.
Saudi Arabia opposes “Israel” out of its strategic ambitions to oppose the UAE. It took Hamas launching Al Aqsa Flood to delay normalisation. Not to mention being under the thumb of American capital.
Pakistan has been battling Afghanistan and India on its borders, and has Balochi militants to contend with before it can provide much to a “Post-Iranian” axis against the Zionist entity.
I can’t rule it out, but I don’t know how dedicated these states are to defeating Israel compared to Iran, nor if their weapons are much more suited to the task.